Reported by Mark Galeotti

When personal sanctions on Russian oligarchs and officials were imposed by the UK, US and EU after Putin’s invasion, the rationale was that this would undermine the Kremlin. In the main, this has failed – and there is still no coherent strategy to encourage those Russians willing to turn against the regime.

Wider economic sanctions are slowly grinding away at the economic base of Putin’s regime and its war machine. The case for personal sanctions is much less clear. It is absolutely right and proper that those directly involved in the war, conducting repressions or justifying aggression ought to be punished. However, in their enthusiasm to be seen as taking a determined stand (and, in part, driven by what one British diplomat described as ‘performative one-upmanship’), all sorts of other Russians, especially wealthy ones, ended up on these various lists. As things stand, the UK has sanctioned over 1,600 people and entities, the EU almost 1,800, and the USA more than 3,000.

One frequently-used argument at the time was that this would induce the oligarchs to try and persuade Putin to change course or even turn against him. This was always naïve. Most so-called ‘oligarchs’ are not really businesspeople but hand-picked cronies placed in charge of key economic sectors. 

The remaining genuine entrepreneurs know what could be at stake, as demonstrated when billionaire Mikhail Khodorkovsky was prosecuted on trumped-up charges early in Putin’s reign: their wealth, their freedom, even their lives depend on toeing the line. They lack the autonomy, let alone the muscle, to challenge Putin’s police state.

Only two oligarchs initially expressed blandly ambiguous concerns about the war. Banker Milhail Fridman, born in western Ukraine, wrote in a letter to staff that he wanted the ‘bloodshed to end’. Industrialist Oleg Deripaska likewise simply said that ‘Peace is very important! Negotiations need to start as soon as possible!’

The irony is that sanctions, visa and travel bans and asset seizures have left many of these people more, not less dependent on the Kremlin. They cannot travel abroad and what remains of their wealth is disproportionately in Russia – and thus in Putin’s grasp. It is often also dependent on government contracts.

Read full report: https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/more-must-be-done-to-encourage-putins-oligarchs-to-jump-ship/