Reported by Antonio Graceffo

U.S. intelligence and defense services, as well as the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) 2023 Threat Assessment recognize China and Russia as the two greatest threats to U.S. national security. The U.S. has more firepower than either of the two and is a member of the world’s most powerful military alliances NATO, Aukus, and the Quad. Consequently, the U.S. would have a distinct advantage in a direct conflict. However, direct conflict remains a future possibility. Meanwhile, Russia and China have both been attacking the U.S. through unconventional warfare for decades. Because Russia is better at understanding American language and culture, and owing to their vast experience, dating back to World War II, arguably, Russia tends to be more effective at unconventional warfare than China.

George Kennan, the father of the containment policy, defined unconventional warfare as “the employment of all the means at a nation’s command, short of war, to achieve its national objectives.” Unconventional warfare can be military or quasi-military operations, other than conventional, direct warfare. Called the Gray Zone, an area between peace and conflict, unconventional warfare can include the use of covert forces or guerilla warfare in a hot conflict. Proxy wars, such as those fought in Vietnam and Korea would be examples of a conflict between the United States and the USSR which did not involve overt, direct combat between the two. More recent examples would be the Syrian Civil War, where Russia provided military support to the government of President Bashar al-Assad, while the United States was backing various opposition groups. Similar indirect conflicts have taken place in Yugoslavia and Kosovo, as well as Georgia. The most obvious example today is the Ukraine war. Although the direct combatants are Russia and Ukraine, the war can be seen as a great-power struggle between the U.S.-led west and the Russian Federation, although no U.S. troops have taken part.

In addition to backing local forces and actively engaging in combat operations, Russia also deploys the Wagner mercenary group into conflicts around the world. Wagner supports the Kremlin’s objectives, often fighting against third-forces supported by the U.S. The group has taken an active role in conflicts in the Central African Republic, Libya, Mali, Syria, and Ukraine, among others.

Although China sometimes has an economic stake in these conflicts, such as buying oil from Russia to fund the Ukraine war or underwriting the Tatmadaw army in Myanmar, China’s participation is generally much less direct than Russia’s.

As much as Russia is a capable combatant in a hot conflict, it is in a cold conflict where Moscow has been the most damaging to the interests of the United States. In a cold conflict, unconventional warfare can include subversion, political, economic, or psychological warfare, as well as informational competition. This extends to influence operations, propaganda, cyber-attacks, espionage, and hacking. An example would be how Russia uses its influence in Iran to undermine U.S. policy in the Middle East. The Kremlin exploits its close ties with Argentina, Brazil, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela to hinder U.S. objectives in the Americas. Across Latin America and in Africa, Moscow pushes an anti-colonialist message which threaten U.S. policy. Ironically, Russia has been heavily involved in Africa, supporting various militias, dictators, and paramilitaries, while claiming not to be meddling in the internal, political affairs of sovereign nations.

Moscow uses the sale of weapons, as well as cheap oil and energy as a foreign policy tool, driving a wedge between the United States, India, Myanmar, and to some extent Vietnam and Turkey. Russian weapons turn up in conflicts all over the world and very often, the Wagner group does as well. Countries helping Russia bypass international sanctions have refused to condemn the Ukraine War. These would examples of the Kremlin employing diplomacy and trade as nonconventional weapons.

According to the ODNI, Russia remains the top cybersecurity threat to the United States and its allies. Russia is constantly improving its ability to damage critical infrastructure, including underwater cables, industrial control systems, telecommunications networks, and power grids.

Read full report: https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/05/20/russias-unconventional-warfare-moscows-domination-of-the-information-space/amp/